Clean Cities Coalition – May 21, 2008 – by Irv Mermelstein

TAGORE – The Advisory Group On Renewable Energy

Sponsored by The Engineered Coated Products Division of The Intertape Polymer Group

This Council was formed in 2003 as The NovaThene Haymaster Advisory Council and is now undergoing an expansion consideration to include several new sponsors that will enable us to expand the PhD membership and broaden our activities in behalf of our main thrust to help our Nation become ENERGY INDEPENDENT.

We currently have 9 (soon to be 10) PhDs from 6 Agricultural Universities + an ARS Director from the USDA, representing the Universities of Idaho, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico State, U.C. Davis and Wisconsin.

We started our efforts by introducing the concept of covering baled hay in the fields with NovaThene HayMaster Tarpaulins that provided protection that proved to be as good as barn-stored hay. The small cost of covering hay in this manner was more than offset by waste reduction and immediately realized higher prices for the hay than uncovered hay.

Early on, these scientists said we were doing more in water conservation than hay waste reduction and we introduced a new line of AquaMaster Coated fabrics used to line irrigation ditches, ponds, lakes, canals and even river beds. This literally stopped water seepage and the savings was much more than both the cost of the AquaMaster fabrics and labor costs of maintenance involved. Our sponsor funded the cost for University studies on both subjects and the PhDs published the findings as evidence of the value of our creations.

Two years ago, we heard a presentation on the subject of Agriculture regaining its early American agrarian position by developing cellulosic ethanol as a great potential fuel; a renewable alternative – with the promise of making us Energy Independent. It was a 3 hour presentation that had everyone on the edge of their seats listening because it suggested that a Manhattan type project (like the A-bomb that ended WW II) could help this happen in less than 5 years. It described Brazil’s leadership as being 15 years ahead of us.

It explained that their solution was easier because they were using up the sugar cane waste that was a serious disposal problem. Extracting cellulose from forage that has sugar content is simple compared to using hay, forage or wood biomass that would be our raw material. But, technology was available. It only needed refinement and improvement, some-thing solvable with time and money. The presenter suggested that what we were spending annually on the Iraq war could bring us Energy Independence within 5 years – that’s less time than we’ve already spent in Iraq. Its only a question of priorities.

It was proposed that our Advisory Council concentrate on how best to support our moving the country back to an Agrarian Economy – perhaps a Homestead Act like 1862 –

We jumped at the chance, largely because it had such significance and importance beyond any personal business benefits our sponsor would achieve. We’ve learned a lot about what needs to be done and how it might be done – stumbling blocks galore – two industries that don’t want alternatives – coal and oil – and are willing to propagandize the public to slow down any change. Editorials appear regularly blaming corn ethanol for higher priced corn. They speak about energy costs to produce cellulosic ethanol which are easily disproved. We call it Oily Propaganda. Here are some interesting irrefutable facts worth considering ....

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– In fuel for transportation, we use 130 billion gallons of gasoline and diesel a year. That number grows at 1.5% each year even with new CAFÉ regulations just enacted.

– We import 12 million barrels of oil daily, many from the Persian Gulf that causes us more than anguish – some say our real cost amounts to $180 billion per year just in Iraq.

All things considered it’s a $3 billion war including future after-war costs.

– A ton of forage or biomass waste can yield 85 to 90 gallons of cellulosic ethanol, mixed with 15% gasoline that’s about 100 gallons of E-85 per ton. Energy cost for that refinement is about 1 gallon of energy (compared to a gallon of energy needed to produce 1.5 gallons of corn ethanol).

– We’d probably need 750 to 1,000 refineries making E-85, roughly about one every 25 to 50 miles apart in each direction across the country. A refinery costs between $1 and $2 per annual gallon of capacity for a total investment cost of about $200 billion.

– Converting gas pumps to handle E-85 @ $20,000 each could cost about $15 billion over time. Without waiting to buy a new car equipped to use E-85, it would cost owners about $500 to install a conversion kit. (There are 230 million cars in the USA)

– All of the above are secondary expenses – money spent in the USA on USA parts and labor – its called GDP improvement to help secure our Energy Independence. Taxes on profits and wages gives a return to our state and federal governments that could help them underwrite start-up investment with grants, tax relief, write-off benefits, etc.

– Where do we get raw material ? Here are just a few areas of magnitude ....

1.) If we activate the 58 million acres in the CRP and GRP soil banks and grew only forage that would average 10 tons per acre, solely earmarked for E-85, we’d yield 58 billion gal. of the 130 billion we use annually – approximately 45% of our total usage.

2.) If we use all the corn stover (waste) produced on our 92 million acres of corn @ 6 tons per acre, this would also yield 100 gallons per ton and would produce 55 billion gal of E-85. Those two targets would be 87% of our annual fuel usage for transportation.

3.) The Forest Service tells us that forest fires can be eliminated by thinning our national forests. A project is underway in Northern Arizona to do just that. A plywood company is taking all the wood and a company is being set up to refine the waste they can’t use (they expect 280,000 tons of waste per year). That’s 28 million gallons of E-85 from just one state’s forests, with a bonus of reducing forest fires – another 22% of our total fuel usage.

– We are on the way to learning how to convert other types of biomass into E-85 and bio-diesel; processes are being developed as we speak – some of this would become public power energy – plus fuel for trains and airplanes.

– We’re not dropping our domestic oil refineries or businesses. If all the Big Oil Com- panies called themselves Energy Companies, they’d become part of the above and slowly reduce our oil usage as the renewable energy gets established. Energy Independence calls for eliminating IMPORTED OIL and that is accomplished with less than all that I’ve listed.

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These comments represent a brief digest of what our Group has learned during the past two years. They may sound like an over-simplification of solutions to the problem. But they are factual statements from a group of very serious scientists. They have their ears close to the ground we worship and they believe deeply that agriculture will make a major contribution to solving our energy problems.

More beneficial excitement is generated with this transition creating 3 to 5 million new jobs; a huge favorable alteration in our balance of payments (exports vs. imports); an infusion of new private businesses, which have been a historical support to our economy; an increase of tax income that would benefit our much needed infrastructure; and most importantly strengthen our national security with something other than military expense.

In closing, I have a few comments on a few of the hurdles that are in our way ....

1,) The news seems focused on the price of corn, supposedly all caused by the corn ethanol we are producing. They never seem to comment on the fact that corn ethanol replaced the cancer producing chemical additive, MTBE. A recent settlement for $423 million was made with all the oil companies except Exxon who continues the case in court. What would you prefer – cancer or $5 corn?

2.) Recently a story broke that if the 58 million acres in the CRP and GRP are committed to “forage for fuel”, where will the hunters go for their wildlife - ducks, rabbits and birds? Is that really a higher priority than Energy Independence?

3.) Rumor has it that we will soon see $100 per barrel oil. That’s more far fetched than the expectation that we will see $140 oil soon. It was $25 a barrel in 2001 and sometime in recent years the inflation index discontinued including fuel and food in its reporting, so we are led to believe that inflation is under control. That’s like having an attack dog on a leash without a muzzle – it could break loose anytime and create some dastardly havoc.

4.) Thomas Friedman, the author of “The World is Flat” thinks we are financing both sides of the Iraqi war via high prices for their oil and our rapidly growing debt with future costs for returning veterans swamping the current war costs by as much as 3 to 1. When gas was less than $2 a gallon, they scoffed at his suggestion that a $1 per gallon tax would benefit us with a balanced budget, while putting us on a path toward more miles per gallon or smaller vehicles. The doomsayers who believe in markets solving all price problems have no quick answers for how we handle $4 fuel, but lawmakers turned down Friedman’s suggestion to “Pay as we go” to finance the war or any other needs that keep us strong economically.

5.) A book I recently read “Bound Together” by Nayan Chanda seemed to prove the theory that the Fall of the Roman Empire was caused solely by their inability to provide their own energy needs. In those days food was their only energy and it was needed to feed both the people and the animals that did all of the hard work. They conquered land to acquire farm- land and the people to work the farms. They had not yet discovered any alternative energy systems – I suggest we should think about how we would manage our living standards; limited fuel or power for part of every day – if we don’t move more quickly to various alternative solutions that we already know about, some of which are suggested, as follows ....

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– For public power – wind and solar systems with zero cost of raw material.

– For transportation – cellulosic ethanol and bio-diesel (of which corn ethanol will be an ingredient along with canola, soy, palm, animal and other vegetable oils).

– For atomic power – but, we must find a method of disposing its waste safely.

– Creative work is being done on carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and methane or animal gas conversion to liquid fuel.

– While I personally hold out little hope of seeing a clean burning liquid fuel created from coal, we are told that there is work being done in this area,

6.) Petroleum (Big Oil) may end up with a smaller share of our transportation fuel market, but they will enjoy export growth to expanding countries who will need our oil and gas output, as well as a strong position in the plastics and chemical markets they have built. They might wisely join our quest for alternative energy and realize they should control the retail distribution of liquid fuel, probably also the blending of E-85 (which is 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline) and possibly even the actual refining of ethanol. Their future need not be all bad – as some of their current anti-ethanol publicity suggests.

Finally, I am personally optimistic about our future potential for achieving Energy Independence with all of the secondary benefits that will establish a stronger position of United States leadership in the world. Our own Energy Independence can help us enlighten other countries to fare better in raising their standard of living and possibly contribute to the elimination of poverty, the combination of which will do more to attain a more peaceful coexistence between and among all countries.

After serving in our armed forces during World War II, I have been most ashamed that we have not found the means of settling any international differences without resorting to the use of WAR as the mechanism of last resort. That, my friends, is a dream that I will hold onto, hoping that our Energy Independence bring us that major secondary benefit.

In the hand-out packet, I’ve included a copy of my remarks and copies of several recent editorials. Also a copy of a few selected news releases of this week’s 8 page report from ep Overviews, a weekly newsletter which I subscribe to, that covers activities in the Cellulosic Ethanol Industry. I particularly liked the report from Vinad Khosla expressing his strong views on the future success potential of Cellulosic Ethanol.

Thank you for the chance to address you today.