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A Bright Future for Biofuels by Mason H. Somerville, Ph.D., P.E.

 

Biofuels will eventually displace the fossil fuels we currently utilize, especially those in the transportation sector.  What is not clear is the timetable for the displacement nor the details as to what biofuels will emerge as market leaders.  As a transportation fuel, biodiesel has been under active development in European countries for at least two decades and now has a substantial market share.  Both the EU and private corporate investments in "clean" diesels have contributed to that market share.  The United States has not made commensurate investments in its' sustainable fuel infrastructure until recently.  Recently, ethanol has emerged as a replacement for MBTE as a gasoline additive.  The manufacturing processes for both ethanol and biodiesel from common agricultural products (corn and oilseeds respectively) are old and well understood.  The advantage, at the moment, of biodiesel over ethanol is its' overall energy efficiency of production (approximately 3 versus 1.1).  Current research holds the promise of substantially improving energy production efficiencies for both biodiesel and ethanol.

 

Three things are clear about the transition to biofuels: (1) it will take time, (2) the number of opportunities is boundless and (3) the embedded investment in fossil fuels will act as a major impediment.  Food is our personal energy source and, as such, it will compete for some of the same resources required by biofuels, most notably land and water.  The following discussion examines both the environment in which the transition to sustainable food and fuels is taking place and identifies the enormity of the tasks we face as we carry out this transition.

 

Resources required for sustainability and biofuels

 

All our existing food and fuel resources, except nuclear and geothermal, are derived from the sun, land, air and water resources.  So, at some point in time, we must learn to utilize and sustain these resources to support the world's societies for the long term.  From a perspective of producing sustainable food and energy, our global land resource appears to be the most limiting.  The following data help us understand the enormity of the issues that face us.

 

 

The conclusions that can be reached from the above include:

 

 

Biofuels will likely represent a major change in historical patterns

 

The history of energy use in the United States reveals that each new energy source that becomes economically viable adds to (but does not displace) any previous energy sources.  This generalization is true of wood, hydroelectric generation, coal, fossil oil, natural gases, nuclear and, to date, renewable technologies (solar and wind).  Until now, we have never had to find a replacement for a currently utilized energy resource.

 

In the U.S., "renewable" energy sources account for a small portion (about 2 to 3%, excluding hydro) of our total energy consumption and have remained at this level for twenty years or so.  The energy market and its' price structure are the primary reasons behind the limited development of renewable resources.  The dominant market advantages of fossil energy resources include: (1) the sun's energy, captured over millennia, was free to the resource owner, (2) also free was the natural creation of crude oil through the chemical transformation of decaying plant matter, (3) the specific energy stored per unit volume of fossil fuel is high, (4) most fossil resources can be recovered and processed at low specific cost and (5) we have extensive experience at utilizing the resource.  The first two reasons represent the primary economic advantage fossil resources possess; on the other hand, sustainable biofuels must be grown, harvested and processed at a cost.  Biofuels are sustainable because the greenhouse gases they create lie within the earth's natural carbon cycle.  Alternatively, the processing of fossil fuels creates an imbalance in the earth's carbon cycle because fossil carbon was collected and stored over millennia and then released to the environment in a short period of time. 

 

The total known fossil resources in the world are large but finite.  The published reserve data are driven by a host of variables, such as recovery and processing technologies and consumer demand.  Although technology and consumer demand are important, neither create the energy resource; they only affect our ability to access a continuously dwindling supply of the resource.  Nor does the market necessarily reflect the entire cost of fossil fuels.  Not included in these data is the question of sustainability including the net production of carbon dioxide outside the natural carbon cycle.  There are many examples of economics not including all the costs and asbestos may be a good one.  Asbestos, a mineral fiber, offered much needed technical solutions to thermal insulation and fire retardant problems and the market for asbestos expanded rapidly.  As our knowledge expanded, we came to understand the health hazards associated with asbestos and we eventually discontinued its use.  Today, we understand that the production of CO2 from sustainable fuels has little or no impact on the global CO2 balance while fossil resources have a substantial impact.

 

References: Global land resource: http://pages.prodigy.net/jhonig/bignum/qland2.html

Population:  www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html

CO2 impact:   www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/globalghg.html

 

Sustainability supported by biofuels

 

The developing biofuels industry offers opportunities to address both the finite nature of our fossil resources and the sustainability issues of CO2 production and climate change. Biofuels include biodiesel made from lipid oils derived from oil seed bearing plants such as Soybeans, Canola, Palm and Algae.  Other important biofuels include the production of ethanol from plant-produced cellulose.  The production of ethanol from grains is well established.  However, energy analyses indicate that it may be one of the least efficient processes to produce ethanol.  No matter which biofuels emerge, it is clear that a wide variety will be necessary as we transition over the next two to three decades to biofuels.

 

The Market Opportunity

 

The magnitude of the opportunity and difficulty of displacing existing fossil fuels (especially the liquid ones) with sustainable biofuels cannot be understated.  The world has learned from the U.S. experience that access to inexpensive energy is an important key to continuing economic development.  There are many data sources for the world's consumption of energy; for the purposes of the following general discussion, BP's data are used.

 

Figures 1 and 2 summarize primary energy (oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and hydroelectric) consumption over time for the world and some key nations. Several important conclusions can be drawn from these data when combined with other information:  

 

Conclusion

 

It now appears that the costs to manufacture biofuels (both ethanol and biodiesel) are close to those of the fossil fuel market.  The price uncertainty in the market is, in large part, driven by politics as much as it is by economics.  In spite of politics and economics, the following points seem to be pertinent in considering the future choices for developing biofuels:   

 

Figure 1: Primary Energy Consumption 1965 through 2005, Million Tonnes Oil

                         

 

Figure 2: USA, China and India - Primary Energy Consumption, 1965 - 2005, Million Tonnes Oil  

                     

                                         

 

The use of energy resources by the world's developing nations is growing at a rate several times that of the developed nations and this trend can be expected to continue.  Finding sustainable food and energy supplies in a finite world with a growing population will clearly challenge us and the next generation.  We have unlimited opportunities as we try to meet these challenges. It is an enormous undertaking but one that certainly bodes well for the future of biofuels.

 

 

(Source: Biographic Notes on Dr Somerville:  Dr. Somerville is currently employed as a Professor at the State University of New York Institute of Technology (SUNYIT) and is assigned to Morrisville State College where he is working on sustainable energy system technologies.  He served as President of SUNYIT from 2002 through 2004.  He held the position of Interim Provost at Northern Arizona University (NAU) during the academic year 2000 -'01 and served as Dean of Engineering at NAU from 1994 through 2002.  He was Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Dean of Engineering at Texas Tech University from 1984 through 1994 and was Professor and Chairman of Mechanical Engineering at the University of Arkansas from 1980 through 1984.  He started his career at the University of North Dakota (UND) in 1973 where he held the positions of Assistant and then Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering until joining the University of Arkansas in 1980.  In 1975, he was appointed Manager of the UND Engineering Experiment Station and was promoted to Director in 1977.  From 1971 through 1973, he was a Senior Engineer at the Bettis Atomic Power Laboratory where he worked in thermal and hydraulic design and testing programs of nuclear reactors.  Dr. Somerville has worked in the energy field since he was an undergraduate student in 1962 and remained technically active through 1984.  In 2004, following his administrative assignments, he reinitiated his active work in the energy field.   He has over 30 publications and has conducted over 30 projects as the principal investigator.   He has worked as a consultant to utility companies, heat pump manufacturers and other energy related enterprises.  He has formed two not-for-profit corporations, both dealing with sustainable energy, and one for-profit company.  Dr. Somerville holds three degrees in Mechanical Engineering: Worcester Polytechnic Institute (B.S.), Northeastern University (M.S.) and The Pennsylvania State University (Ph.D.). He resides in Marcy, N.Y.)

 

Contact:  Mason H. Somerville, telephone:  (315) 793-9984, email:  mason1221@gmail.com